Crude oil imports may rise in November after decline in October

India’s crude oil imports are likely to improve in November with key refineries, including Mangalore, Kochi and Mathura, restarting after maintenance, according to global real-time data and analytics provider Kpler.

The agency estimates India’s refineries will increase by 250,000 barrels per day month-on-month to 5.41 million barrels per day during the month, the highest since July.

In October, the country’s imports fell to a year-low of 4.34 million barrels per day. “They are expected to recover to 4.87 million barrels per day in November, supported by stable domestic production of 590,000 barrels per day,” Kpler said in its report.

It noted that Russia remains the country’s largest crude oil supplier, although imports are unlikely to exceed 2 million barrels per day in the near future. “This is due to more work at Russian refineries as autumn maintenance ends and the impact on its facilities due to reduced drone activity.”

Iraq is strengthening its position as the second-largest supplier of crude oil to India, as Hindustan Petroleum Corporation has struck a permanent deal with Iraq’s State Organisation for Marketing of Oil (SOMO).

Brazil is emerging as a notable source for medium sour grades for India, with crude oil arrivals of 185,000 barrels per day in November, its second-highest monthly volume recorded, according to Kpler data. The country is diversifying its crude oil sources, especially with Brazil, as geopolitical uncertainty continues to impact supplies.

Union Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri has highlighted on several occasions that oil availability and supply are increasing and global oil market conditions should calm down as a result. “A shift in global crude oil dynamics is also evident as Indian Oil Corporation is opting for discounted US WTI (West Texas Intermediate) barrels instead of its usual Nigerian grade, driven by weak European demand and stability in China. With the gap narrowing, India’s post-maintenance activity highlights its adaptability in securing competitively priced supplies amid evolving market conditions,” the report said.

Data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell showed that the country’s crude oil import bill rose 7.6 per cent to $81.7 billion during the first seven months of the current fiscal year 2024-25 from $75.9 billion in the same period of FY24.

The country imported 140.2 million tonnes of crude oil during April to October, up 3.5 per cent from 135.4 million tonnes in the same period of the previous fiscal. India’s dependence on crude oil imports rose to 88.1 per cent during April to October of the current fiscal year from 87.6 per cent in the same period of FY24 amid rising demand and stagnant domestic production.

However, analysts now expect domestic oil and gas production to rise, driven by state-owned leading oil producer Oil and Natural Gas Corporation, after several years of slow growth.